Election calendar and predictions

Tue 27 Oct

1. Prime Minister of Israel after the election?

   Gadi Eizenkot 63% 24h change: ▲6

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Benjamin Netanyahu 26%
   2. Naftali Bennett 7%
   3. Avigdor Lieberman 2%

   +15 below 1%

   All 19 outcomes

   Israel elections (13)

   1. Israeli Legislative Election

      Yashar 75% 24h change: ▲4
   2. Israeli Minister of Defense?

      No Next Minister by Feb 28 43% 24h change: ▼5
   3. Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

      No Next Minister by Feb 28 38% 24h change: ▼8
   4. Israeli Minister of Justice?

      No Next Minister by Feb 28 41% 24h change: ▼14
   5. Israeli Minister of Finance?

      No Next Minister by Feb 28 42% 24h change: ▲2
   6. Israeli Minister of National Security?

      No Next Minister by Feb 28 42% 24h change: ▼1
   7. Which parties will be in the Israeli government?

      Yashar 73% 24h change: ▲10
   8. Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?

      Yes 37% 24h change: ▼11
   9. Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's the government?

      Gadi Eizenkot 71% 24h change: ▲3
   10. Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?

       Ra'am 97% 24h change: ▲1
   11. More Israel elections (3)
2. AustraliaHuon Valley Mayoral Election

   Abby McKibben 42% 24h change: ▲7

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Mark Jessop 33%
   2. Paul Gibson 14%
   3. Marshall Callaghan 12%
   4. Sally Doyle 1%
   5. Toby Thorpe 1%

   All 6 outcomes

   Australia elections (16)

   1. Hobart Lord Mayor Election

      Bill Harvey 50% 24h change: ▼1
   2. Clarence Mayoral Election

      Brendan Blomeley 68% 24h change: ▼2
   3. Waratah–Wynyard Mayoral Election

      Chloe Foster 37% 24h change: ▼3
   4. Latrobe Mayoral Election

      Brett Whiteley 70% 24h change: ▲24
   5. Northern Midlands Mayoral Election

      Andrew McCullagh 49% 24h change: ▲4
   6. Devonport Mayoral Election

      Alison Jarman 66% 24h change: ▲2
   7. Central Coast Mayoral Election

      Cheryl Fuller 57% 24h change: ▲5
   8. Meander Valley Mayoral Election

      Stephanie Cameron 56% 24h change: ▲6
   9. Launceston Mayoral Election

      Matthew Garwood 61% 24h change: ▲4
   10. Sorell Mayoral Election

       Janet Gatehouse 81% 24h change: ▲14
   11. More Australia elections (6)

Wed 28 Oct

1. CanadaWinnipeg Mayoral Election

   Scott Gillingham 91% 24h change: ▼2

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Kevin Klein 5%
   2. Noah Redden 4%
   3. Michael Vogiatzakis 2%
   4. Mazher Alam 2%
   5. Don Woodstock 1%

   +1 below 1%

   All 7 outcomes

   Canada elections (1)

   1. Brandon, MB Mayoral Election

      Jeff Fawcett 53% 24h change: ▲3

Sun 1 Nov

1. Bulgaria Presidential Election

   Iliana Iotova 71% 24h change: ▼4

   

   71% Iliana Iotova

   ▼17 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   

   29% Аndrey Gyurov

   ▲16 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 2 outcomes

Mon 2 Nov

1. CanadaCharlottetown, PEI Mayoral Election

   Philip Brown 46% 24h change: ▼11

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Daniel Mullen 28%
   2. Amir Zuccolo 13%

   All 3 outcomes

Tue 3 Nov

1. United StatesCalifornia Governor Election

   Xavier Becerra 97%

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Steve Hilton 3%

   +21 below 1%

   All 23 outcomes

   United States elections (89)

   1. Which party will win the House in 2026?

      Democratic Party 92%
   2. Los Angeles Mayoral Election

      Nithya Raman 54%
   3. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

      Democratic Party 66% 24h change: ▲1
   4. Alaska Governor Election

      Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 89%
   5. Ohio Governor Election

      Amy Acton (D) 84% 24h change: ▲1
   6. Texas Governor Election

      Greg Abbott (R) 69% 24h change: ▲3
   7. Nevada Governor Election

      Aaron Ford (D) 72% 24h change: ▲3
   8. Wisconsin Governor Election

      David Crowley (D) 81%
   9. Florida Governor Election

      Byron Donalds (R) 80% 24h change: ▼2
   10. Michigan Governor Election

       Jocelyn Benson (D) 93% 24h change: ▲1
   11. More United States elections (79)
2. American Samoan Legislative Election
3. Guamanian Legislative Election
4. Northern Mariana Islands Legislative Election
5. U.S. Virgin Islands Legislative Election

Wed 4 Nov

1. South AfricaMayor of Johannesburg?

   Helen Zille 52% 24h change: ▲1

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. David Makhura 18%
   2. Frank Chikane 8%
   3. Herman Mashaba 8%
   4. Lukhona Mnguni 5%
   5. Loyiso Masuku 3%
   6. Kenny Kunene 2%

   +1 below 1%

   All 8 outcomes

   South Africa elections (7)

   1. Mayor of Mangaung (Bloemfontein)?

      Werner Pretorius 23% 24h change: ▲3
   2. Mayor of Ekurhuleni (Germiston)?

      Khathutshelo Rasilingwane 24% 24h change: ▼3
   3. Mayor of eThekwini (Durban)?

      Apostle Mxolisi Phakathi 41% 24h change: ▲2
   4. Mayor of Nelson Mandela Bay (Port Elizabeth)?

      Babalwa Lobishe 34% 24h change: ▲1
   5. Mayor of Buffalo City (East London)?

      Princess Faku 64% 24h change: ▼2
   6. Mayor of Tshwane (Pretoria)?

      Cilliers Brink 33% 24h change: ▼17
   7. Mayor of Cape Town?

      Geordin Hill-Lewis 96%

Thu 5 Nov

1. Grenadian General Election

Sat 7 Nov

1. New Zealand legislative election

   National Party 56% 24h change: ▲2

   

   56% National Party

   ▲10 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   

   40% Labour Party

   ▼14 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 6 outcomes

   New Zealand elections (4)

   1. Which coalition will form the New Zealand government?

      National + ACT + NZF 52% 24h change: ▲5
   2. Prime Minister of New Zealand?

      Christopher Luxon 56% 24h change: ▼2
   3. Which parties will be part of the government of New Zealand?

      New Zealand First Party 61% 24h change: ▲12
   4. NZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote)

      Yes 47% 24h change: ▲1

Sun 8 Nov

1. LithuaniaNorthern Nalšia District By-Election

   Gintautas Kindurys 49% 24h change: ▲4

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Vladislav Kondratovič 13%
   2. Antanas Šakalis 10%
   3. Dalia Štraupaitė 8%
   4. Ignotas Adomavičius 6%
   5. Nikolajus Lebedevičius 5%
   6. Giedrius Dainys 5%
   7. Viktor Voronin 3%
   8. Mėta Palauskaitė 3%
   9. Maksimas Paukštė 2%
   10. Andrej Šildiajėv 1%

   All 11 outcomes

2. SwitzerlandFribourg Cantonal Election

Tue 10 Nov

1. CanadaOntario Liberal Party Leadership Election

   Lee Fairclough 57% 24h change: ▲1

   

   57% Lee Fairclough

   ▼2 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   

   37% Navdeep Bains

   ▲2 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 5 outcomes

Sat 14 Nov

1. MalaysiaMelaka State Election

Sun 15 Nov

1. SloveniaLjubljana Mayoral Election

   Zoran Janković 66% 24h change: ▼2

   

   66% Zoran Janković

   ▼1 pt in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   

   29% Luka Mesec

   ▲6 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 11 outcomes

2. Cape Verde Presidential Election

   José Maria Neves 87% 24h change: ▲2

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Joana Rosa 4%
   2. Janine Lélis 2%
   3. Casimiro de Pina 1%

   +1 below 1%

   All 5 outcomes

3. JapanEhime Gubernatorial Election
   Japan elections (1)

   1. Fukuoka Mayoral Election
4. MoldovaGagauzia General Election