Israeli Minister of Defense?
18 outcomes · Voting day: (in 20 days) · Use widget
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| No Next Minister by Feb 28 | 30% | ▼2 pts |
| Naftali Bennett | 22% | ▲4 pts |
| Eli Cohen | 14% | ▲9 pts |
| Ofer Winter | 14% | ▲2 pts |
| Israel Katz | 9% | ▼1 pt |
| Bezalel Smotrich | 8% | ▼1 pt |
| Yair Golan | 8% | ▲4 pts |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 7% | 0 pts |
| Elazar Stern | 5% | ▲1 pt |
| Gadi Eizenkot | 4% | 0 pts |
| Itamar Ben Gvir | 3% | 0 pts |
| Moshe Feiglin | 3% | ▼3 pts |
| Benny Gantz | 2% | 0 pts |
| Yair Lapid | 2% | ▼1 pt |
| Yoram Cohen | 2% | ▼1 pt |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 1% | ▼1 pt |
| Amir Ohana | 1% | ▼2 pts |
| Matan Kahana | <1% | – |
Key questions
When is the vote?
Tuesday, October 27, 2026 (in 20 days).
Who is expected to win?
No Next Minister by Feb 28, with a market-implied probability of 30%, ahead of Naftali Bennett at 22%. Updated 2026-10-07 14:33 UTC.
What do these percentages mean?
The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.