Brazil elections 2026: predictions

Sun 4 Oct

1. Brazil Presidential Election First Round

   Flávio Bolsonaro Winner

   

   Result

   1. Flávio Bolsonaro 47.0%
   2. Lula 45.2%
   3. Escritor Augusto Cury 2.9%
   4. Renan Santos 2.2%
   5. Ronaldo Caiado 2.2%
   6. Zema 0.3%
   7. Samara 0.1%
   8. Hertz Dias 0.0%
   9. Clariana Barão 0.0%
   10. Edmilson Costa 0.0%
   11. Veterinário Wilson Grassi 0.0%
   12. Rui Costa Pimenta 0.0%

   All 12 outcomes · Source: Wikipedia

   By region

   1. Goiás Flávio Bolsonaro 100%
   2. Minas Gerais Flávio Bolsonaro 100%
   3. Federal District Flávio Bolsonaro 100%
   4. Tocantins Flávio Bolsonaro 100%
   5. Amazonas Lula 100%
   6. Paraíba Lula 100%
   7. Rio Grande do Sul Flávio Bolsonaro 100%
   8. São Paulo Flávio Bolsonaro 100%
   9. Rio de Janeiro Flávio Bolsonaro 100%
   10. Pará Lula 100%
   11. Rondônia Flávio Bolsonaro 100%
   12. Ceará Lula 100%
2. Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won

   Partido Liberal (PL) Winner

   

   Result

   1. Partido Liberal (PL) 28.1%
   2. Brazil of Hope 13.2%
   3. Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) 5.7%
   4. Progressive Union 10.7%
   5. REPUBLICANOS 4.3%
   6. Partido Social Democrático (PSD) 5.1%
   7. Partido Socialista Brasileiro (PSB) 7.1%
   8. NOVO 5.3%
   9. Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB) 1.3%
   10. PODEMOS 1.9%
   11. PSOL REDE 5.2%
   12. Partido Democrático Trabalhista (PDT) 2.6%
   13. Solidary Renewal 0.3%
   14. Mission Party 0.3%
   15. National Mobilization 0.3%
   16. Popular Unity 0.2%
   17. Avante 0.2%
   18. United Socialist Workers' Party 0.1%
   19. Christian Democracy 0.1%
   20. Democrata 0.0%
   21. Workers' Cause Party 0.0%
   22. Brazilian Labour Renewal Party 0.0%
   23. Brazilian Communist Party 0.0%
   24. Agir 0.0%

   All 12 outcomes · Source: Wikipedia

3. Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election

   Partido Liberal (PL) Winner

   

   Result

   1. Partido Liberal (PL) 22.7%
   2. FE Brasil 13.0%
   3. UPB 6.9%
   4. Partido Social Democrático (PSD) 8.3%
   5. REPUBLICANOS 7.0%
   6. Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) 6.9%
   7. Podemos (PODE) 5.2%
   8. PSOL-REDE 4.7%
   9. Partido Socialista Brasileiro (PSB) 4.4%
   10. PSDB-CIDADANIA 2.4%
   11. NOVO 2.6%
   12. Solidary Renewal 1.1%
   13. Partido Democrático Trabalhista (PDT) 1.6%
   14. Avante 1.6%
   15. MISSÃO 1.1%
   16. Christian Democracy 0.1%
   17. Popular Unity 0.0%
   18. National Mobilization 0.0%
   19. Democrata 0.0%
   20. United Socialist Workers' Party 0.0%
   21. Agir 0.0%
   22. Workers' Cause Party 0.0%
   23. Brazilian Communist Party 0.0%
   24. Brazilian Labour Renewal Party 0.0%

   All 15 outcomes · Source: Wikipedia

4. Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Held

   Partido Liberal (PL) Winner

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB)
   2. Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT)
   3. NOVO
   4. UNIÃO
   5. Partido Social Democrático (PSD)
   6. Partido Democrático Trabalhista (PDT)
   7. PP
   8. Partido Socialista Brasileiro (PSB)
   9. REPUBLICANOS
   10. PODEMOS
   11. Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB)

   All 12 outcomes

Sun 25 Oct

1. Brazil Presidential Election

   Flávio Bolsonaro 85%

   

   85% Flávio Bolsonaro

   ▲24 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   

   15% Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

   ▼24 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 2 outcomes