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繁體中文Brazil Presidential Election 2026
19 outcomes · Voting day: (in 18 days)
Flávio Bolsonaro faces Lula in Brazil election runoff on 25 October Brazil votes on 25 October 2026 in a runoff to elect its president. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who came first in the first round on 4 October with 47.03%, faces President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who won 45.16%.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 85% | 0 pts |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 15% | ▼1 pt |
| Tarcísio de Freitas Resolved | 0% | – |
| Jair Bolsonaro Resolved | 0% | – |
| Fernando Haddad Resolved | 0% | – |
| Michelle Bolsonaro Resolved | 0% | – |
| Eduardo Bolsonaro Resolved | 0% | – |
| Ratinho Júnior Resolved | 0% | – |
| Renan Santos Resolved | 0% | – |
| Ronaldo Caiado Resolved | 0% | – |
| Romeu Zema Resolved | 0% | – |
| Camilo Santana Resolved | 0% | – |
| Geraldo Alckmin Resolved | 0% | – |
| Eduardo Leite Resolved | 0% | – |
| Aldo Rebelo Resolved | 0% | – |
| Tereza Cristina Resolved | 0% | – |
| Helder Barbalho Resolved | 0% | – |
| Pablo Marçal Resolved | 0% | – |
| Augusto Cury Resolved | 0% | – |
- Flávio Bolsonaro 85%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 15%
Sep 2025Mar 2026Oct 2026
Latest news
- Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) formalized his support for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff at an event in Goiânia. Estado de Minas
- Band and Record scheduled runoff debates between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro for 11 October; participation is not yet confirmed. Exame
- Romeu Zema (Novo) announced his support for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff. Estado de Minas
- No candidate won a majority in the first round; Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula advance to a runoff on 25 October, with Augusto Cury third. Rádio Senado
Summarised automatically from the linked sources.
Key questions
When is the vote?
Sunday, October 25, 2026 (in 18 days).
Who is expected to win?
Flávio Bolsonaro, with a market-implied probability of 85%, ahead of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 15%. Updated 2026-10-07 14:33 UTC.
What do these percentages mean?
The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.