Election TrackerHow it worksFor newsrooms
EN

Home › Brazil

Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal, born in 1987 in Goiânia, is a Brazilian businessman, digital influencer and personal-development coach who sells online courses.

Born
1987 (39 years), Goiânia
Party
PRTB
Education
Paulista University
Political position

Right · Where sources place this person
Wikipedia: ran on a right-wing platform (2024)
Ideology: right-wing populism, anti-establishment

0%Probability · Brazil Presidential Election 2026

Voting day
(in 18 days)

He ran for mayor of São Paulo in 2024 and finished third in the first round. He is affiliated with União Brasil per Wikipedia, and the PRTB filed his candidacy for President of Brazil in the 2026 election on 15 August 2026, pending Superior Electoral Court analysis.

Career

Marçal began as a call-centre attendant at Brasil Telecom at 18 and later became a businessman and online coach. His parties have included PROS, Solidarity, DC and PRTB, and most recently União Brasil. In 2024 he ran for mayor of São Paulo on what Wikipedia calls a right-wing platform, presenting himself as a political outsider, and placed third without reaching the runoff.

Controversies

A São Paulo regional electoral court convicted Marçal in December 2025 of misuse of the media in his 2024 campaign, over a "cuts contest" that encouraged supporters to produce and share campaign videos; Correio da Manhã reports it also found improper Google advertising purchases and illegal spending. The court rejected his appeals on 5 August 2026 by 4 votes to 3, kept him ineligible until 2032 and fined him R$ 420,000. According to the same report, his candidacy registration remains provisional pending the Superior Electoral Court, and electoral law lets ineligible candidates register while challenges are decided.

Summarised automatically from the linked sources. Wikipedia · Correio da Manhã

Photo: TV Brasil Central, CC BY 3.0, Wikimedia Commons (cropped)

  1. Pablo Marçal 0%
100%50%0%

Aug 17Sep 11Oct 7

This market has closed. The figures above are its final state.

Brazil Presidential Election 2026

OutcomeLeft – RightAgeProbability
Flávio BolsonaroRight4585%
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLeft8015%
Tarcísio de Freitas ResolvedRight510%
Jair Bolsonaro ResolvedFar right710%
Fernando Haddad ResolvedCentre-left630%
Michelle Bolsonaro ResolvedRight440%
Eduardo Bolsonaro ResolvedFar right420%
Ratinho Júnior ResolvedCentre450%
Renan Santos Resolved420%
Ronaldo Caiado ResolvedRight770%
Romeu Zema ResolvedCentre-right610%
Pablo Marçal ResolvedRight390%

All 19 outcomes

Embed this widget

Paste this code into an article or page. The widget updates by itself: the market-implied probability before the vote, live on election night, then the official result.

Preview

More widgets and options for newsrooms →