
Jair Bolsonaro
Jair Messias Bolsonaro, born in 1955 in Glicério, São Paulo, is a Brazilian former army captain and politician.
- Born
- 1955 (71 years), Glicério
- Party
- Liberal Party
- Education
- Academia Militar das Agulhas Negras
Far right · Where sources place this person
Wikipedia: far-right, populist
Ideology: right-wing populism, national conservatism, social conservatism
0%Probability · Brazil Presidential Election 2026
- Voting day
- (in 18 days)
He served as federal deputy from 1991 to 2019 and President of Brazil from 2019 to 2023. Wikipedia describes him as far-right. He was barred from office until 2030 by the Superior Electoral Court in 2023, and is named in the market on who reaches the 2026 presidential runoff.
Career
Bolsonaro served as an army officer from 1973 to 1988, reaching the rank of captain. He entered politics in 1988, was a Rio de Janeiro city councillor from 1989 to 1991 and a federal deputy from 1991 to 2019. He was elected President of Brazil in 2018 and governed from 2019 to 2023, losing the 2022 election to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
- President of Brazil 2019–2023
- Mercosur Pro Tempore Presidency 2019–2019
- President-elect of Brazil 2018–2018
- Federal deputy of Rio de Janeiro 1991–2018
- Councillor of Rio de Janeiro 1989–1991
Positions
Wikipedia describes him as far-right and populist. He opposed same-sex marriage, abortion, affirmative action and drug decriminalisation, and advocated closer ties with Israel and the United States.
Controversies
On 30 June 2023 the Superior Electoral Court barred Bolsonaro from seeking office until 2030 for undermining confidence in the voting system with unsubstantiated fraud claims and abusing government communication channels. On 11 September 2025 a Supreme Court panel voted 4 to 1 to convict him of attempting a coup, heading an armed criminal organisation and related counts, and sentenced him to 27 years and 3 months. He denies wrongdoing and says he is a victim of political persecution; his lawyers said they would appeal. Wikipedia reports his arrest on 22 November 2025, enforcement of the sentence ordered on 25 November, and temporary house arrest from 24 March 2026 on health grounds.
Summarised automatically from the linked sources. Wikipedia · Dawn
Photo: Palácio do Planalto from Brasilia, Brasil, CC BY 2.0, Wikimedia Commons (cropped)
- Jair Bolsonaro 0%
Sep 2025Mar 2026Oct 2026
This market has closed. The figures above are its final state.
Brazil Presidential Election 2026
| Outcome | Left – Right | Age | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | Right | 45 | 85% |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | Left | 80 | 15% |
| Tarcísio de Freitas Resolved | Right | 51 | 0% |
| Fernando Haddad Resolved | Centre-left | 63 | 0% |
| Michelle Bolsonaro Resolved | Right | 44 | 0% |
| Eduardo Bolsonaro Resolved | Far right | 42 | 0% |
| Ratinho Júnior Resolved | Centre | 45 | 0% |
| Renan Santos Resolved | 42 | 0% | |
| Ronaldo Caiado Resolved | Right | 77 | 0% |
| Romeu Zema Resolved | Centre-right | 61 | 0% |
| Camilo Santana Resolved | Centre-left | 58 | 0% |
| Jair Bolsonaro Resolved | Far right | 71 | 0% |