US Midterms 2026: who will win?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · 38 days to go
Democrats are favoured to take both chambers from the Republicans.
Senate
63% chance Democrats take control
▲2% in 7 days
Democrats’ probability of control
50%
House
93% chance Democrats take control
▲2% in 7 days
Democrats’ probability of control
50%
Polls close Nov 3, 23:00 – Nov 4, 06:00 GMT · From prediction-market prices, not a poll
PAM Winner
Result
- Authenticity and Modernity Party 27.3%
- National Rally of Independents 16.4%
- Istiqlal Party 19.3%
- Justice and Development Party 18.7%
- Popular Movement 8.9%
- Socialist Union of Popular Forces 8.5%
- New Democrats Party 0.6%
- Moroccan Union for Democracy 0.3%
September 30 Winner
Pam Alexis 5%
Neutrality initiative 2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 56%
Other outcomes in this event
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 43%
- Renan Santos 1%
- Geraldo Alckmin <1%
- Ronaldo Caiado <1%
- Tarcisio de Freitas <1%
- Jair Bolsonaro <1%
- Eduardo Bolsonaro <1%
- Fernando Haddad <1%
- Aldo Rebelo <1%
- Augusto Cury <1%
- Camilo Santana <1%
- Ratinho Júnior <1%
- Eduardo Leite <1%
- Helder Barbalho <1%
- Michelle Bolsonaro <1%
- Pablo Marçal <1%
- Romeu Zema <1%
- Tereza Cristina <1%
AS 95%
Lula 72%
Other outcomes in this event
- Flavio Bolsonaro 26%
- Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
- Pablo Marçal <1%
- Renan Santos <1%
- Ronaldo Caiado <1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 90%
Other outcomes in this event
- Ronaldo Caiado 7%
- Lula 1%
- Clariana Barao <1%
- Edmilson Costa <1%
- Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
- Hertz Dias <1%
- Pablo Marçal <1%
- Renan Santos <1%
- Rui Costa Pimenta <1%
- Samara <1%
- Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%
- Zema <1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 94%
Other outcomes in this event
- Lula 8%
- Renan Santos 1%
- Veterinário Wilson Grassi 1%
- Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
- Samara <1%
- Zema <1%
- Pablo Marçal <1%
- Rui Costa Pimenta <1%
- Clariana Barao <1%
- Edmilson Costa <1%
- Ronaldo Caiado <1%
Víctor Robert De La Cruz Rosas 42%
Other outcomes in this event
Flavio Bolsonaro 53%
Flavio Bolsonaro 84%
Jorge Hilton Flores Bazán 33%
Other outcomes in this event
PQ 94%
Zac de Vries 57%
Brenda Locke 76%
Other outcomes in this event
David Eby 50%
Other outcomes in this event
- Lorne Doerkson 50%
- Dallas Brodie <1%
- Emily Lowan <1%
- John Rustad <1%
Iliana Iotova 80%
Other outcomes in this event
- Аndrey Gyurov 15%
- Kostadin Kostadinov 2%
- Nikolai Denkov <1%
- Rosen Zhelyazkov <1%
- Boyko Borissov <1%
- Vassil Terziev <1%
- Atanas Atanasov <1%
- Blagomir Kotsev <1%
- Delyan Peevski <1%
- Krum Zarkov <1%
- Natalia Kiselova <1%
- Rosen Plevneliev <1%
- Yanaki Stoilov <1%
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia 64%
Other outcomes in this event
Flávio Bolsonaro 32%
