Live probabilities

  1. Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?
    Yes/No Final
    Yes/No

  1. Switzerland’s September Referendum: What will pass?
    Food initiative 1%
    Food initiative

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Neutrality initiative 1%

    All 2 outcomes

  1. Latvian Parliamentary Election Winner
    AS 90%
    AS

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. SV 3%
    2. LPV 2%
    3. PRO 1%
    4. NA <1%
    5. ST! <1%
    6. ZZS <1%
    7. JV <1%
    8. S <1%

    All 9 outcomes

  1. Bulgaria Presidential Election
    Iliana Iotova 80%

    80% Iliana Iotova

    ▲5% in 7 days

    Probability

    50%
    Jun 2026Sep 2026

    16% Аndrey Gyurov

    ▼9% in 7 days

    Probability

    50%
    Jun 2026Sep 2026

    All 14 outcomes

  2. Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
    Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia 64%

    64% Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia

    Probability

    50%
    Sep 23Sep 26

    35% Student List – Students Win

    Probability

    50%
    Sep 22Sep 26

    All 4 outcomes

Dec 25, 2026 – Jan 23, 2027