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Will the Safeguarding Swiss neutrality (neutrality initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote?
2%Probability
- 1h change
- 0%
- 24h change
- ▲1%
- 1w change
- 0%
- Closes
Other outcomes in this event
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Food initiative | 1% | 0% |
Resolution criteria
As of market creation, two referenda are scheduled to be held in Switzerland on September 27, 2026:
- Issue 1: Popular initiative ‘Safeguarding Swiss neutrality (neutrality initiative)’
- Issue 2: Popular initiative ‘For safe food – through strengthening sustainable domestic production, increasing plant-based foods and ensuring clean drinking water (food initiative)’
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the specified popular vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, the federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if, for any reason, the results of the respective vote are not known definitively by the date the subsequent Referendum in Switzerland is scheduled to be held.
The resolution source will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official certified referendum results published by Swiss government authorities, such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery and the information portal provided by the Swiss authorities (https://www.ch.ch/en/votes-and-elections/). Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.