Live probabilities

US Midterms 2026: who will win?

Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · 38 days to go

Democrats are favoured to take both chambers from the Republicans.

See the full forecast

Polls close Nov 3, 23:00 – Nov 4, 06:00 GMT

  1. Yes/No Final
    Yes/No

  1. PAM Winner
    PAM

    Result

    1. Authenticity and Modernity Party 27.3%
    2. National Rally of Independents 16.4%
    3. Istiqlal Party 19.3%
    4. Justice and Development Party 18.7%
    5. Popular Movement 8.9%
    6. Socialist Union of Popular Forces 8.5%
    7. New Democrats Party 0.6%
    8. Moroccan Union for Democracy 0.3%

    All 8 outcomes · Source: Wikipedia

  1. Pam Alexis 5%
    Pam Alexis

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Kerry-Lynne Findlay 2%
    2. Lakhwinder Jhaj 1%

    All 3 outcomes

  1. Neutrality initiative 2%
    Neutrality initiative

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Food initiative 1%

    All 2 outcomes

  1. Flávio Bolsonaro 56%
  2. AS 95%
    AS

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. SV 2%
    2. LPV 2%
    3. PRO 1%
    4. NA <1%
    5. ST! <1%
    6. ZZS <1%
    7. JV <1%
    8. S <1%

    All 9 outcomes

  1. Lula 73%
  2. Flavio Bolsonaro 92%
  3. Flavio Bolsonaro 94%
  4. Víctor Robert De La Cruz Rosas 42%
  5. PL 92%
    PL

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. PT 3%
    2. MDB 3%
    3. UNIÃO 3%
    4. PP 1%
    5. PDT 1%
    6. NOVO 1%
    7. PSD <1%
    8. PSDB <1%
    9. PSB <1%
    10. PODEMOS <1%

    All 11 outcomes

  6. Flavio Bolsonaro 84%
  7. Flavio Bolsonaro 53%
  8. Miguel Gerardo Cueva Celi 32%
  9. Lula 99%
    Lula

  1. PQ 94%
    PQ

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. CAQ 4%
    2. PLQ 2%
    3. PCQ 1%
    4. PVQ <1%
    5. QS <1%

    All 6 outcomes

  1. Zac de Vries 57%
    Zac de Vries

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Karen Harper 24%
    2. Rishi Sharma 9%

    All 3 outcomes

  2. Brenda Locke 75%

  1. David Eby 50%

  1. Iliana Iotova 80%
  2. Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia 64%

Oct 26 – Nov 24, 2026