How to read these numbers

A figure of 27% means that, at the last snapshot, prediction-market prices put the chance of the event at 27%. It is a market-implied probability, not a poll and not our forecast.

Figures come from public prediction-market data and are refreshed every few minutes. Every page shows the time of its snapshot. Probabilities move when news arrives, so the number you read tomorrow may differ.

Questions with too little market activity to give a meaningful probability are not listed. Every other open market is, at any horizon, until it closes. Nothing already past is shown, not even a race awaiting its result; this site is about what is still to come. The exception is an election once its result is in: it stays for three days after settlement, with the winner in place of a probability. Markets whose outcome is a number rather than a who or a whether (seat counts, vote shares, turnout, margins, interest rates) are not listed either. The one exception is a vote share that sits exactly on the legal threshold for entering a parliament, which is listed as the question it really is: will the party get in. Markets on who finishes second, third or fourth are not listed either: the winner event already ranks every contender.

Percentages are rounded; values below 1% and above 99% are shown as such. Changes are in percentage points. This site only publishes figures: it is not a betting or trading service and handles no money.