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Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?
92%Probability
- 1h change
- ▲1%
- 24h change
- ▲8%
- 1w change
- ▲1%
- Closes
Other outcomes in this event
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Lula | 9% | ▼8% |
| Clariana Barao | <1% | – |
| Edmilson Costa | <1% | – |
| Escritor Augusto Cury | <1% | – |
| Hertz Dias | <1% | – |
| Pablo Marçal | <1% | – |
| Renan Santos | <1% | – |
| Ronaldo Caiado | <1% | – |
| Rui Costa Pimenta | <1% | – |
| Samara | <1% | – |
| Veterinário Wilson Grassi | <1% | – |
| Zema | <1% | – |
Resolution criteria
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Federal District, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Federal District.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Federal District. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).