Who will win the 2026 US midterms?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · 38 days to go
Democrats are favoured to take both chambers from the Republicans.
Senate
63% chance Democrats take control
▲2% in 7 days
Democrats’ probability of control
House
93% chance Democrats take control
▲2% in 7 days
Democrats’ probability of control
Polls close Nov 3, 23:00 – Nov 4, 06:00 GMT
Key questions
When are the 2026 US midterms?
On Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 38 days from now. Polls close between Nov 3, 23:00 and Nov 4, 06:00 GMT, so the first projections come in overnight in Europe; close races can take days to count.
What is being elected?
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate and 36 state governors. A majority takes 218 House seats and 51 Senate seats; 50 are enough for the Republicans, because Vice President JD Vance, a Republican, breaks ties.
Who controls Congress now?
The Republicans, with 53 of 100 Senate seats and 218 House seats to the Democrats’ 214. The Democrats need a net gain of 4 Senate seats and 4 House seats to take control.
Who is expected to win?
Democrats are favoured to take both chambers from the Republicans. Probability of controlling the Senate: Democrats 63%. Probability of controlling the House: Democrats 93%.
What do these percentages mean?
They are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. The markets currently put the chance that the Democrats control the Senate at 63%. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.
When does the new Congress take office?
On January 3, 2027, when the 120th Congress is sworn in.