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Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
<1%Probability
- 1h change
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- 24h change
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- 1w change
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- Closes
Other outcomes in this event
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 56% | ▲1% |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 43% | ▼1% |
| Renan Santos | 1% | 0% |
| Geraldo Alckmin | <1% | – |
| Ronaldo Caiado | <1% | – |
| Tarcisio de Freitas | <1% | – |
| Jair Bolsonaro | <1% | – |
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | <1% | – |
| Fernando Haddad | <1% | – |
| Aldo Rebelo | <1% | – |
| Augusto Cury | <1% | – |
| Camilo Santana | <1% | – |
Resolution criteria
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).