Election calendar and predictions · Nov 6 – Dec 5, 2026

Sat 7 Nov

1. New Zealand legislative election

   Labour Party 54% 24h change: ▼2

   

   54% Labour Party

   ▼2 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   

   46% National Party

   ▲3 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 6 outcomes

   New Zealand elections (2)

   1. Which coalition will form the New Zealand government?

      National + ACT + NZF 44%
   2. Prime Minister of New Zealand?

      Christopher Luxon 56% 24h change: ▼1

Sun 15 Nov

1. Cape Verde Presidential Election

   José Maria Neves 78%

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Joana Rosa 11%
   2. Janine Lélis 1%

   All 3 outcomes

Sat 28 Nov

1. TaiwanTaipei Mayor Election

   Chiang Wan-an 77% 24h change: ▲4

   

   77% Chiang Wan-an

   ▼4 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   

   22% Puma Shen

   ▲2 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 3 outcomes

   Taiwan elections (4)

   1. 2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party

      Kuomintang (KMT) 89% 24h change: ▼1
   2. New Taipei Mayor Election

      Lee Shu-chuan 63% 24h change: ▲10
   3. Kaohsiung Mayor Election

      Lai Jui-lung 65% 24h change: ▲1
   4. Hsinchu City Mayor Election

      Ann Kao 93%

Sun 29 Nov

1. Prime Minister of Spain?

   Alberto Núñez Feijóo 80% 24h change: ▼2

   

   80% Alberto Núñez Feijóo

   ▲1 pt in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   

   19% Pedro Sánchez

   ▲5 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 16 outcomes

   Spain elections (1)

   1. Spain General Election

      PP 83% 24h change: ▼1
2. AustraliaPremier of Victoria

   Jess Wilson 69% 24h change: ▼11

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Ben Carroll 18%
   2. Danny O'Brien 11%
   3. Warren Pickering 6%

   +6 below 1%

   All 10 outcomes