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Taipei Mayor Election Winner 2026

3 outcomes · Voting day: (in 52 days)

74% chance to win Chiang Wan-an

▼7 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Aug 16Oct 7

27% chance to win Puma Shen

▲7 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Aug 15Oct 7

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OutcomeProbability24h change
Chiang Wan-an74%–
Puma Shen27%▲1 pt
Kuo Hsi<1%–
  1. Chiang Wan-an 74%
  2. Puma Shen 27%
100%50%0%

Aug 15Sep 10Oct 7

Key questions

When is the vote?

Saturday, November 28, 2026 (in 52 days).

Who is expected to win?

Chiang Wan-an, with a market-implied probability of 74%, ahead of Puma Shen at 27%. Updated 2026-10-07 16:36 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

Related races

  1. 2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner Kuomintang (KMT) 89%
  2. New Taipei Mayor Election Winner Lee Shu-chuan 63%
  3. Kaohsiung Mayor Election Winner Lai Jui-lung 65%
  4. Hsinchu City Mayor Election Winner Ann Kao 93%
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