Israel elections 2026: predictions

Tue 27 Oct

1. Prime Minister of Israel after the election?

   Gadi Eizenkot 47% 24h change: ▼1

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Benjamin Netanyahu 36%
   2. Naftali Bennett 10%
   3. Avigdor Lieberman 2%
   4. Ofer Winter 1%
   5. Itamar Ben Gvir 1%

   +13 below 1%

   All 19 outcomes

2. Israeli Legislative Election

   Yashar 51% 24h change: ▲1

   

   51% Yashar

   ▼8 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   

   49% Likud

   ▲7 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 6 outcomes

3. Which parties will be in the Israeli government?

   Yisrael Beiteinu 55% 24h change: ▲2

   

   55% Yisrael Beiteinu

   ▲9 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   

   48% The Democrats

   ▲3 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 9 outcomes

4. Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

   No Next Minister by Feb 28 38% 24h change: ▲5

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Avigdor Lieberman 13%
   2. Gadi Eizenkot 13%
   3. Israel Katz 9%
   4. Gideon Sa’ar 2%

   All 5 outcomes

5. Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?

   Ra'am 96%

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. RZP-Zehut 88%
   2. Amcha Yisrael 46%
   3. Reservists and New Economic Party 39%
   4. Blue & White 6%

   All 5 outcomes

6. Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut miss the 3.25% threshold for the Knesset?

   Yes 15% 24h change: ▼1

   
7. Will United Arab List (Ra'am) miss the 3.25% threshold for the Knesset?

   Yes 7% 24h change: ▼3

   
8. Will Blue and White get into the Knesset?

   Yes 5%