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Which parties will be in the Israeli government?

15 outcomes · Voting day: (in 20 days)

55% chance The Democrats

▲10 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Sep 22Oct 7

55% chance Yisrael Beiteinu

▲11 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Sep 23Oct 7

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OutcomeProbability24h change
Yashar58%–
Together56%▼1 pt
The Democrats55%▼1 pt
Yisrael Beiteinu55%▲1 pt
Shas48%▲4 pts
Likud42%▼1 pt
United Torah Judaism40%▲7 pts
RZP-Zehut37%▼4 pts
Otzma Yehudit36%▲3 pts
New Economic Party / The Reservists26%▲5 pts
Amcha Yisrael25%▲1 pt
Ra'am19%▲1 pt
Noam6%0 pts
Blue and White6%–
Joint List4%0 pts
  1. The Democrats 55%
100%50%0%

Sep 22Sep 29Oct 7

Key questions

When is the vote?

Tuesday, October 27, 2026 (in 20 days).

Who is expected to win?

Yashar, with a market-implied probability of 58%, ahead of Together at 56%. Updated 2026-10-07 17:41 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

Related races

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  2. Israeli Legislative Election Winner Yashar 51%
  3. Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs? No Next Minister by Feb 28 42%
  4. Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections? Ra'am 96%
  5. Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut miss the 3.25% threshold for the Knesset? Yes 15%
  6. Will United Arab List (Ra'am) miss the 3.25% threshold for the Knesset? Yes 6%
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