Canada elections 2026: predictions

Mon 5 Oct

1. Quebec General Election

   PQ Winner

   

   Result

   1. PQ 28.0%
   2. PLQ 24.2%
   3. PCQ 20.7%
   4. QS 12.4%
   5. CAQ 13.4%
   6. Green 0.3%
   7. Climat Québec 0.3%
   8. Canadian 0.2%
   9. Parti nul 0.2%
   10. Démocratie directe 0.1%
   11. Independent 0.1%
   12. Présence 0.1%
   13. Parti culinaire 0.0%
   14. Libertarian 0.0%
   15. Communist 0.0%
   16. Marxist–Leninist 0.0%
   17. Access, Property, and Equity Party 0.0%
   18. Bloc Pot 0.0%
   19. Équipe Autonomiste 0.0%
   20. Osons Québec 0.0%
   21. Québec innovant 0.0%

   All 6 outcomes · Source: Wikipedia

2. Premier of Quebec

   Awaiting the official result

Sat 17 Oct

1. Vancouver Mayoral Election

   Pete Fry 67%

   

   67% Pete Fry

   0 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   

   34% Ken Sim

   ▲5 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 13 outcomes

2. Saanich, BC Mayoral Election

   Zac de Vries 62% 24h change: ▲1

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Karen Harper 22%
   2. Rishi Sharma 7%

   All 3 outcomes

3. Surrey Mayoral Election

   Brenda Locke 61% 24h change: ▼1

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Linda Annis 17%
   2. Honveer Singh Randhawa 10%
   3. Doug McCallum 3%
   4. Mike Starchuk 1%

   +1 below 1%

   All 6 outcomes

4. Richmond Mayoral Election

   Rob Howard 53%

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Kash Heed 33%
   2. Alexa Loo 14%
   3. Dickens Cheung 1%
   4. Henry Yao 1%

   +1 below 1%

   All 6 outcomes

5. Revelstoke, BC Mayoral Election

   Gary Sulz 62% 24h change: ▼2

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Tim Palmer 18%
   2. Aaron Orlando 1%
   3. Nicole Cherlet 1%

   All 4 outcomes

6. Kamloops, BC Mayoral Election

   Mike O'Reilly 65% 24h change: ▼1

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Nelly Dever 20%
   2. Reid Hamer-Jackson 13%

   All 3 outcomes

7. Prince George, BC Mayoral Election

   Kyle Sampson 38% 24h change: ▲1

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Simon Yu 36%
   2. Garth Frizzell 19%
   3. Lisa Mitchell 1%
   4. Roy Stewart 1%

   +3 below 1%

   All 8 outcomes

8. Delta, BC Mayoral Election

   Dylan Kruger 51% 24h change: ▲3

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. George Harvie 38%
   2. Melissa Granum 8%

   All 3 outcomes

9. Fernie, BC Mayoral Election

   Harshan Ramadass 67% 24h change: ▲1

   

   67% Harshan Ramadass

   ▲5 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   

   31% Kyle Hamilton

   ▼4 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 2 outcomes

10. Kelowna Mayoral Election

    Ron Cannan 57%

    

    57% Ron Cannan

    ▼5 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    

    44% Tom Dyas

    ▲10 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    All 3 outcomes

11. Nanaimo Mayoral Election

    Leonard Krog 93%

    

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Anne Marie Dryden 3%

    All 2 outcomes

12. Coquitlam, BC Mayoral Election

    Craig Hodge 96% 24h change: ▲12

    

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Trish Mandewo 2%
    2. Madhavee Inamdar 2%

    All 3 outcomes

13. New Westminster, BC Mayoral Election

    Patrick Johnstone 46% 24h change: ▼9

    

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Daniel Fontaine 27%

    All 2 outcomes

14. Whistler, BC Mayoral Election

    Jack Crompton 84% 24h change: ▼2

    

    84% Jack Crompton

    ▼1 pt in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    

    13% Brandon Smith

    ▼3 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    All 4 outcomes

15. West Vancouver, BC Mayoral Election

    Kirk LaPointe 48% 24h change: ▼1

    

    48% Kirk LaPointe

    ▼3 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    

    45% Mark Sager

    ▲1 pt in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    All 2 outcomes

16. Vernon, BC Mayoral Election

    Victor Cumming 60% 24h change: ▼1

    

    60% Victor Cumming

    ▲1 pt in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    

    34% Kari Gares

    ▼7 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    All 2 outcomes

17. Langley Township, BC Mayoral Election

    Jay Lundgren 33% 24h change: ▲2

    

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Eric Woodward 28%

    All 2 outcomes

18. Victoria Mayoral Election

    Marianne Alto 96%

    

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Melissa Cseszko 3%

    All 2 outcomes

19. Burnaby Mayoral Election

    Mike Hurley 93%

    

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Michael Angelo 4%

    +1 below 1%

    All 3 outcomes

Sat 24 Oct

1. Premier of British Columbia

   Lorne Doerkson 58% 24h change: ▲8

   

   58% Lorne Doerkson

   ▲7 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   

   43% David Eby

   ▼7 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 5 outcomes

2. British Columbia General Election

   Conservative 55% 24h change: ▲6

   

   55% Conservative

   Probability

   50%

   

   45% NDP

   ▼1 pt in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 5 outcomes

Mon 26 Oct

1. Toronto Mayoral Election

   Olivia Chow 81% 24h change: ▼1

   

   81% Olivia Chow

   ▼7 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   

   18% Brad Bradford

   ▲6 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 8 outcomes

2. Ottawa Mayoral Election

   Mark Sutcliffe 86% 24h change: ▲3

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Alex Lawson 7%
   2. Jeff Leiper 4%
   3. Neil Saravanamuttoo 1%

   +1 below 1%

   All 5 outcomes

3. Oshawa, ON Mayoral Election

   Tito-Dante Marimpietri 35% 24h change: ▼18

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Jim Lee 22%
   2. Derek Giberson 4%

   All 3 outcomes

4. Markham, ON Mayoral Election

   Frank Scarpitti 77% 24h change: ▼13

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Martin Ross 11%

   All 2 outcomes

5. Vaughan, ON Mayoral Election

   Steven Del Duca 94%

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Shelly-Ann Starlette Cerrelli 3%
   2. Parveen Bola 2%

   All 3 outcomes

6. Mississauga Mayoral Election

   Carolyn Parrish 49% 24h change: ▲1

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Bonnie Crombie 40%
   2. Alvin Tedjo 6%
   3. Dipika Damerla 2%

   +3 below 1%

   All 7 outcomes

7. Niagara-on-the-Lake, ON Mayoral Election

   Erwin Wiens 56% 24h change: ▼14

   

   56% Erwin Wiens

   ▲7 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   

   38% Andrea Kaiser

   ▼3 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 3 outcomes

8. Waterloo, ON Mayoral Election

   Dorothy McCabe 66% 24h change: ▲9

   

   66% Dorothy McCabe

   ▼3 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   

   35% Shannon Weber

   ▲18 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 5 outcomes

9. Stratford, ON Mayoral Election

   Martin Ritsma 61% 24h change: ▼1

   

   61% Martin Ritsma

   ▲10 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   

   31% Jo-Dee Burbach

   ▼1 pt in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 5 outcomes

10. Thunder Bay, ON Mayoral Election

    Trevor Giertuga 45% 24h change: ▼1

    

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Moe Comuzzi 19%
    2. Aldo Ruberto 18%
    3. Volker Kromm 1%
    4. Clinton Harris 1%

    +2 below 1%

    All 7 outcomes

11. Kingston, ON Mayoral Election

    Bryan Paterson 88% 24h change: ▲1

    

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Conny Glenn 3%
    2. Grant William Bedard 3%
    3. Stephen Cuthbertson 1%

    +1 below 1%

    All 5 outcomes

12. Hamilton Mayoral Election

    Keanin Loomis 56% 24h change: ▼1

    

    56% Keanin Loomis

    ▼2 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    

    40% Andrea Horwath

    ▲6 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    All 9 outcomes

13. Barrie, ON Mayoral Election

    Alex Nuttall 85%

    

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Tanya Saari 11%

    +2 below 1%

    All 4 outcomes

14. Peterborough, ON Mayoral Election

    Neil Morton 42% 24h change: ▼1

    

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Michael Eamon 29%
    2. Keith Riel 23%
    3. Brian Lumsden 1%
    4. Jacob Méthot 1%

    +2 below 1%

    All 7 outcomes

15. London, ON Mayoral Election

    Josh Morgan 92%

    

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Susan Stevenson 8%
    2. Kirsten Krose 1%

    +1 below 1%

    All 4 outcomes

16. Guelph, ON Mayoral Election

    Leanne Caron 51% 24h change: ▼2

    

    51% Leanne Caron

    ▲17 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    

    50% Ken Yee Chew

    ▼9 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    All 6 outcomes

17. Cambridge, ON Mayoral Election

    Scott Hamilton 60% 24h change: ▼10

    

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Jan Liggett 16%
    2. Tony Chaves 4%
    3. Ryan Bolender 4%
    4. Ihtsham Haq 3%
    5. Ken Roche 1%

    All 6 outcomes

18. Burlington, ON Mayoral Election

    Marianne Meed Ward 67% 24h change: ▲11

    

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Rory Nisan 19%
    2. Lisa Kearns 3%
    3. Yugalkeesor Ramdhonee 2%
    4. Keith Demoe 1%

    All 5 outcomes

19. Oakville, ON Mayoral Election

    Rob Burton 57% 24h change: ▼13

    

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Julia Hanna 24%
    2. Jeff Knoll 7%
    3. Sean O'Meara 4%
    4. Arvind Choudhary 1%

    All 5 outcomes

20. Milton, ON Mayoral Election

    Gord Krantz 51% 24h change: ▲1

    

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. George Minakakis 18%
    2. Sameera Ali 16%
    3. Zainab Azim 8%
    4. Nadeem Akbar 5%
    5. Maliha K. Ahmed 4%
    6. Asif Khan 2%
    7. Abdulkareem Akbik 1%
    8. Arjun Joshi 1%
    9. Che'z Amun 1%

    All 10 outcomes

21. Sault Ste. Marie, ON Mayoral Election

    Joel Rowswell 65% 24h change: ▲16

    

    65% Joel Rowswell

    ▼7 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    

    28% Matthew Shoemaker

    ▼3 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    All 5 outcomes

22. Windsor, ON Mayoral Election

    Drew Dilkens 66% 24h change: ▲1

    

    66% Drew Dilkens

    ▲22 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    

    28% Fred Francis

    ▼21 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    All 6 outcomes

23. Richmond Hill, ON Mayoral Election

    David West 97%

    

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Holo Devnani 2%
    2. Domenic Bardari 1%

    All 3 outcomes

24. Greater Sudbury, ON Mayoral Election

    Paul Lefebvre 91%

    

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Miranda Rocca-Circelli 5%
    2. Michael McIntosh 2%
    3. Rodney Newton 2%
    4. Joseph Boutros 1%
    5. Keenan Menard 1%
    6. Troy Crowder 1%

    +1 below 1%

    All 8 outcomes

25. Pickering, ON Mayoral Election

    Kevin Ashe 69% 24h change: ▲3

    

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Janice Frampton 18%
    2. Doug Cornell 9%
    3. Zargham Rasool 4%
    4. Shaun Rickard 4%
    5. Lisa Robinson 3%
    6. Andrea Wood 1%

    All 7 outcomes

26. Brampton, ON Mayoral Election

    Patrick Brown 92% 24h change: ▲2

    

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Sandeep Somal 5%
    2. Jagruti Bhatt 1%
    3. Vidya Sagar Gautam 1%

    +1 below 1%

    All 5 outcomes

27. Whitby, ON Mayoral Election

    Elizabeth Roy 81% 24h change: ▼1

    

    81% Elizabeth Roy

    ▼1 pt in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    

    18% Chris Leahy

    ▲5 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    All 3 outcomes

28. Ajax, ON Mayoral Election

    Marilyn Crawford 80%

    

    80% Marilyn Crawford

    ▼4 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    

    15% Ashmeed Khan

    ▲3 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    All 5 outcomes

29. Kitchener, ON Mayoral Election

    Berry Vrbanovic 93% 24h change: ▲1

    

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. David Alton 4%
    2. Wazhma Frogh 3%
    3. Manikantan Nair 2%
    4. Cindy Ward 1%
    5. George Trihenea 1%

    All 6 outcomes

30. Niagara Falls, ON Mayoral Election

    Jim Diodati 85%

    

    85% Jim Diodati

    ▲13 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    

    10% Kevin Martineau

    ▼1 pt in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    All 5 outcomes

31. St. Catharines, ON Mayoral Election

    Mat Siscoe 95%

    

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Anthony A. Adeoye 3%
    2. Ann-Marie Zammit 3%
    3. Jimmy Jackson 1%

    All 4 outcomes

Wed 28 Oct

1. Winnipeg Mayoral Election

   Scott Gillingham 71% 24h change: ▲8

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Kevin Klein 17%
   2. Don Woodstock 8%
   3. Mazher Alam 7%

   +2 below 1%

   All 6 outcomes

2. Brandon, MB Mayoral Election

   Len Isleifson 54% 24h change: ▲5

   

   54% Len Isleifson

   ▼21 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   

   42% Jeff Fawcett

   ▲27 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 2 outcomes

Mon 2 Nov

1. Charlottetown, PEI Mayoral Election

   Philip Brown 58% 24h change: ▼2

   

   58% Philip Brown

   ▲7 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   

   40% Daniel Mullen

   ▼2 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 4 outcomes