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Niagara Falls, ON Mayoral Election Winner 2026

5 outcomes · Voting day: (in 19 days)

84% chance to win Jim Diodati

▲5 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Aug 25Oct 7

10% chance to win Kevin Martineau

0 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Aug 26Oct 7

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OutcomeProbability24h change
Jim Diodati84%▼1 pt
Kevin Martineau10%▲1 pt
Paul Manning8%0 pts
Lori Lococo4%–
Michael Lucid3%0 pts
  1. Jim Diodati 84%
  2. Kevin Martineau 10%
  3. Paul Manning 8%
100%50%0%

Aug 25Sep 15Oct 7

Key questions

When is the vote?

Monday, October 26, 2026 (in 19 days).

Who is expected to win?

Jim Diodati, with a market-implied probability of 84%, ahead of Kevin Martineau at 10%. Updated 2026-10-07 16:36 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

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