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Markham, ON Mayoral Election Winner 2026

2 outcomes · Voting day: (in 19 days)

79% chance to win Frank Scarpitti

▼13 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Aug 25Oct 7

9% chance to win Martin Ross

▲4 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Aug 25Oct 7

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OutcomeProbability24h change
Frank Scarpitti79%▼12 pts
Martin Ross9%▲4 pts
  1. Frank Scarpitti 79%
  2. Martin Ross 9%
100%50%0%

Aug 25Sep 15Oct 7

Key questions

When is the vote?

Monday, October 26, 2026 (in 19 days).

Who is expected to win?

Frank Scarpitti, with a market-implied probability of 79%, ahead of Martin Ross at 9%. Updated 2026-10-07 18:40 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

Related races

  1. Toronto Mayoral Election Winner Olivia Chow 79%
  2. Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner Mark Sutcliffe 86%
  3. Oshawa, ON Mayoral Election Winner Tito-Dante Marimpietri 44%
  4. Vaughan, ON Mayoral Election Winner Steven Del Duca 94%
  5. Mississauga Mayoral Election Winner Carolyn Parrish 49%
  6. Niagara-on-the-Lake, ON Mayoral Election Winner Erwin Wiens 55%
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