United States elections 2026: predictions

Not yet decided

1. Tallahassee Mayoral Election

   Loranne Ausley 51% 24h change: ▲1

   

   51% Loranne Ausley

   Probability

   50%

   

   47% Jeremy Matlow

   ▲2 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 5 outcomes

2. St. Petersburg Mayoral Election

   Charlie Crist 88% 24h change: ▲1

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Ken Welch 13%

   All 2 outcomes

3. 2026 North Las Vegas Mayoral Election

   Daniele Monroe-Moreno 81%

   81% Daniele Monroe-Moreno

   ▲7 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   18% Scott Black

   ▼7 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 2 outcomes

Tue 3 Nov

1. 2026 Tarrant County Judge Election

   Alisa Simmons 52% 24h change: ▼4

   52% Alisa Simmons

   ▼9 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   46% Tim O'Hare

   ▲13 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 2 outcomes

2. 2026 Montgomery County Judge Election

   Mark Keough 95%

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. James Graf 3%

   All 2 outcomes

3. 2026 El Paso County Judge Election

   Ricardo Samaniego 96%

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Minerva Torres Shelton 4%

   All 2 outcomes

4. 2026 Fulton County Commission Chair Election

   Mo Ivory 96%

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Eric J. Tatum 3%

   All 2 outcomes

5. 2026 Harris County Judge Election

   Letitia Plummer 86% 24h change: ▲1

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Orlando Sanchez 11%

   All 2 outcomes

6. 2026 Los Angeles County Sheriff Election

   Robert Luna 96%

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Alex Villanueva 3%

   All 2 outcomes

7. 2026 Fort Bend County Judge Election

   Dexter McCoy 83% 24h change: ▼2

   83% Dexter McCoy

   ▼2 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   18% Daniel Wong

   ▲1 pt in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 2 outcomes

8. 2026 Collin County Judge Election

   Chris Hill 70% 24h change: ▲1

   70% Chris Hill

   ▲2 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   30% John R. "Buster" Brown

   ▼2 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 2 outcomes

9. 2026 Lexington Mayoral Election

   Linda Gorton 78%

   78% Linda Gorton

   ▲1 pt in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   19% Raquel Carter

   ▼4 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 2 outcomes

10. 2026 Williamson County Judge Election

    Heather Jefts 78%

    78% Heather Jefts

    ▲5 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    22% Steven Snell

    Probability

    50%

    All 2 outcomes

11. 2026 Bexar County Judge Election

    Ron Nirenberg 97%

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Patrick Von Dohlen 3%

    All 2 outcomes

12. 2026 Reno Mayoral Election

    Kate Marshall 90%

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Kathleen Taylor 8%

    All 2 outcomes

13. Texas Railroad Commissioner Election

    Bo French (R) 51% 24h change: ▲6

    

    51% Bo French (R)

    ▲3 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    

    50% Jon Rosenthal (D)

    ▼3 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    All 2 outcomes

14. 2026 Dallas County Judge Election

    Clay Jenkins 96%

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Mike Immler 4%

    All 2 outcomes

15. Georgia Secretary of State Election

    Penny Brown Reynolds (D) 54% 24h change: ▲4

    

    54% Penny Brown Reynolds (D)

    ▲14 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    

    42% Tim Fleming (R)

    ▼6 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    All 2 outcomes

16. 2026 Henderson Mayoral Election

    Michelle Romero 79% 24h change: ▼3

    79% Michelle Romero

    ▼10 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    17% Hollie Chadwick

    ▲8 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    All 2 outcomes

17. 2026 Louisville Mayoral Election

    Craig Greenberg 90%

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Shameka Parrish-Wright 8%

    All 2 outcomes

18. 2026 Cameron County Judge Election

    Esteban "Steve" Guerra 90%

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Mauro Garza 6%

    All 2 outcomes

19. Iowa Attorney General Election

    Brenna Bird (R) 54%

    

    54% Brenna Bird (R)

    ▼11 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    

    43% Nate Willems (D)

    ▲13 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    All 2 outcomes

20. Ohio Secretary of State Election

    Robert Sprague (R) 54% 24h change: ▼3

    

    54% Robert Sprague (R)

    ▼3 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    

    45% Allison Russo (D)

    ▲4 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    All 2 outcomes

21. 2026 Denton County Judge Election

    Andy Eads 88%

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Nick Pappas 10%

    All 2 outcomes

22. Florida Attorney General Election

    James Uthmeier (R) 79%

    

    79% James Uthmeier (R)

    ▲2 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    

    22% José Javier Rodriguez (D)

    ▲5 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    All 2 outcomes

23. New York Attorney General Election

    Letitia James (D) 97%

    

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Saritha Komatireddy (R) 4%

    All 2 outcomes

24. Ohio Attorney General Election

    Keith Faber (R) 74%

    

    74% Keith Faber (R)

    ▼7 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    

    23% John Kulewicz (D)

    ▲7 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    All 2 outcomes

25. Minnesota Attorney General Election

    Keith Ellison (D) 75%

    

    75% Keith Ellison (D)

    ▲6 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    

    25% Ronald J. Schutz (R)

    ▼1 pt in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    All 2 outcomes

26. Michigan Secretary of State Election

    Garlin Gilchrist (D) 88%

    

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Anthony Forlini (R) 12%

    All 2 outcomes

27. Texas Attorney General Election

    Mayes Middleton (R) 73% 24h change: ▲2

    

    73% Mayes Middleton (R)

    ▼7 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    

    27% Nathan Johnson (D)

    ▲7 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    All 2 outcomes

28. Indiana Secretary of State Election

    Beau Bayh (D) 57%

    

    57% Beau Bayh (D)

    ▼1 pt in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    

    43% Max Engling (R)

    ▼1 pt in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    All 2 outcomes

29. Georgia Attorney General Election

    Brian Strickland (R) 49% 24h change: ▲1

    

    49% Brian Strickland (R)

    ▲3 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    

    46% Tanya Miller (D)

    ▲5 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    All 2 outcomes

30. Kansas Attorney General Election

    Chris Mann (D) 56% 24h change: ▲12

    

    56% Chris Mann (D)

    ▲13 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    

    43% Kris Kobach (R)

    ▼14 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    All 2 outcomes

31. Nevada Attorney General Election

    Nicole Jeanette Cannizzaro (D) 80% 24h change: ▲1

    

    80% Nicole Jeanette Cannizzaro (D)

    ▲2 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    

    20% Adriana Guzmán Fralick (R)

    ▼1 pt in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    All 2 outcomes

32. Arizona Attorney General Election

    Kris Mayes (D) 80%

    

    80% Kris Mayes (D)

    ▲1 pt in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    

    17% Warren Petersen (R)

    ▼2 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    All 2 outcomes

33. Michigan Attorney General Election

    Eli Savit (D) 77%

    

    77% Eli Savit (D)

    ▲8 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    

    24% Doug Lloyd (R)

    ▼4 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    All 2 outcomes

34. Will Florida's "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" referendum pass in November 2026?

    Yes 34% 24h change: ▼6

    
35. Oakland Mayoral Election

    Barbara Lee 92% 24h change: ▲1

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Brenda Grisham 5%

    All 2 outcomes

36. Wisconsin Attorney General Election

    Josh Kaul (D) 81%

    

    81% Josh Kaul (D)

    ▼2 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    

    16% Eric Toney (R)

    ▼2 pts in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    All 2 outcomes

37. Nevada Secretary of State Election

    Cisco Aguilar (D) 87%

    

    Other outcomes in this event

    1. Jim Marchant (R) 12%

    All 2 outcomes

38. Wisconsin Secretary of State Election

    JoCasta Zamarripa (D) 84%

    

    84% JoCasta Zamarripa (D)

    Probability

    50%

    

    13% Jay Schroeder (R)

    ▲1 pt in 7 days

    Probability

    50%

    All 2 outcomes

Wed 4 Nov

1. Which party will win the House in 2026?

   Democratic Party 93%

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Republican Party 8%

   All 2 outcomes

2. Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

   Democratic Party 65%

   

   65% Democratic Party

   ▲2 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   

   36% Republican Party

   ▼2 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 2 outcomes

3. Senate Majority Leader?

   Chuck Schumer 48% 24h change: ▼1

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. John Thune 26%
   2. Brian Schatz 9%
   3. Chris Van Hollen 6%
   4. Patty Murray 4%
   5. Tom Cotton 4%
   6. Cory Booker 3%
   7. Steve Daines 2%
   8. John Barrasso 1%

   +2 below 1%

   All 11 outcomes

4. California voter ID referendum passes?

   Yes 44% 24h change: ▼6

   
5. What will Idaho voters choose as their state gun?

   Winchester Model 1873 57% 24h change: ▲1

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Colt Peacemaker 16%
   2. Colt M1911 12%
   3. M1 Garand 5%
   4. Winchester Model 1894 5%
   5. Remington Model 700 1%

   All 6 outcomes

6. Arizona Secretary of State Election

   Democrat 84%

   

   84% Democrat

   ▼2 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   

   15% Republican

   ▲1 pt in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 2 outcomes

7. North Carolina Supreme Court Election

   Anita Earls (D) 81%

   

   81% Anita Earls (D)

   Probability

   50%

   

   19% Sarah Stevens (R)

   Probability

   50%

   All 2 outcomes