Oakland Mayoral Election 2026
2 outcomes · Voting day: (in 27 days)
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Barbara Lee | 91% | ▲1 pt |
| Brenda Grisham | 5% | – |
- Barbara Lee 91%
100%50%0%
Jul 30Sep 2Oct 7
Key questions
When is the vote?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 (in 27 days).
Who is expected to win?
Barbara Lee, with a market-implied probability of 91%, ahead of Brenda Grisham at 5%. Updated 2026-10-07 16:42 UTC.
What do these percentages mean?
The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.