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2026 Montgomery County Judge Election Winner

2 outcomes · Voting day: Tue, Nov 3, 2026 (in 27 days)

95% chance to win Mark Keough

▲3 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%

Jun 2026Oct 2026

4% chance to win James Graf

▲1 pt in 7 days

Probability

50%

Jun 2026Oct 2026

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Outcome	Probability	24h change
Mark Keough	95%	0 pts
James Graf	4%	0 pts

Mark Keough 95%

100%50%0%

Jun 2026Aug 2026Oct 2026

Key questions

When is the vote?

Tuesday, November 3, 2026 (in 27 days).

Who is expected to win?

Mark Keough, with a market-implied probability of 95%, ahead of James Graf at 4%. Updated 2026-10-07 13:52 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

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Paste this code into an article or page. The widget updates by itself: the market-implied probability before the vote, live on election night, then the official result.

<iframe src="https://electiontracker.eu/embed/united-states/montgomery-county-judge-election-2026" title="2026 Montgomery County Judge Election Winner" width="100%" height="400" style="border:0;max-width:640px" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<script src="https://electiontracker.eu/embed.js" async></script>

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