Taiwan elections 2026: predictions

Sat 28 Nov

1. Taipei Mayor Election

   Chiang Wan-an 73%

   

   73% Chiang Wan-an

   ▼8 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   

   28% Puma Shen

   ▲8 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 3 outcomes

2. 2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party

   Kuomintang (KMT) 89% 24h change: ▼1

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) 11%

   +1 below 1%

   All 3 outcomes

3. New Taipei Mayor Election

   Lee Shu-chuan 62% 24h change: ▲10

   

   62% Lee Shu-chuan

   ▼3 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   

   38% Su Chiao-hui

   ▲2 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 3 outcomes

4. Kaohsiung Mayor Election

   Lai Jui-lung 65% 24h change: ▲1

   

   65% Lai Jui-lung

   ▼9 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   

   36% Ko Chih-en

   ▲9 pts in 7 days

   Probability

   50%

   All 3 outcomes

5. Hsinchu City Mayor Election

   Ann Kao 93%

   

   Other outcomes in this event

   1. Chuang Ching-cheng 6%

   All 2 outcomes