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New Taipei Mayor Election Winner 2026

3 outcomes · Voting day: (in 52 days)

59% chance to win Lee Shu-chuan

▼6 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Aug 15Oct 7

41% chance to win Su Chiao-hui

▲7 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Aug 16Oct 7

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OutcomeProbability24h change
Lee Shu-chuan59%▲2 pts
Su Chiao-hui41%▼3 pts
Huang Kuo-chang<1%–
  1. Lee Shu-chuan 59%
  2. Su Chiao-hui 41%
100%50%0%

Aug 15Sep 10Oct 7

Key questions

When is the vote?

Saturday, November 28, 2026 (in 52 days).

Who is expected to win?

Lee Shu-chuan, with a market-implied probability of 59%, ahead of Su Chiao-hui at 41%. Updated 2026-10-07 18:45 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

Related races

  1. Taipei Mayor Election Winner Chiang Wan-an 74%
  2. 2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner Kuomintang (KMT) 88%
  3. Kaohsiung Mayor Election Winner Lai Jui-lung 65%
  4. Hsinchu City Mayor Election Winner Ann Kao 93%
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