New Zealand elections 2026: predictions

New Zealand election on 7 November pits Luxon against Hipkins New Zealand votes on 7 November 2026 to elect its 120-seat Parliament. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's centre-right coalition, led by his National Party, faces an opposition led by the centre-left Labour Party of Chris Hipkins, a former prime minister.

New Zealand legislative election

Saturday, November 7, 2026 · in 31 days

54% chance Labour Party

▼2 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%

46% chance National Party

▲3 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%

New Zealand First Party 1%

All 6 outcomes

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