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繁體中文New Zealand legislative election winner?
6 outcomes · Voting day: (in 31 days)
New Zealand election on 7 November pits Luxon against Hipkins New Zealand votes on 7 November 2026 to elect its 120-seat Parliament. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's centre-right coalition, led by his National Party, faces an opposition led by the centre-left Labour Party of Chris Hipkins, a former prime minister.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Labour Party | 54% | ▼2 pts |
| National Party | 46% | ▲3 pts |
| New Zealand First Party | 1% | – |
| Green Party | <1% | – |
| ACT New Zealand | <1% | – |
| Te Pāti Māori | <1% | – |
- Labour Party 54%
- National Party 46%
Apr 2026Jul 2026Oct 2026
Key questions
When is the vote?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 (in 31 days).
Who is expected to win?
Labour Party, with a market-implied probability of 54%, ahead of National Party at 46%. Updated 2026-10-07 14:33 UTC.
What do these percentages mean?
The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.