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繁體中文Which coalition will form the New Zealand government?
18 outcomes · Voting day: (in 31 days)
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| National + ACT + NZF | 44% | ▼2 pts |
| Labour + Green | 29% | ▲1 pt |
| Labour + Green + Maori | 15% | ▼3 pts |
| Other | 9% | ▲2 pts |
| Labour + Maori | 1% | 0 pts |
| Labour + Green + NZF | 1% | – |
| National + Labour | 1% | – |
| National + NZF | 1% | 0 pts |
| National + ACT | 1% | – |
| Labour + Green + Maori + NZF | <1% | 0 pts |
| Labour | <1% | 0 pts |
| Labour + NZF | <1% | – |
| Labour + Maori + NZF | <1% | – |
| National | <1% | – |
| National + Maori | <1% | – |
| National + ACT + Maori | <1% | – |
| National + NZF + Maori | <1% | – |
| National + ACT + NZF + Maori | <1% | – |
- National + ACT + NZF 44%
- Labour + Green 29%
- Labour + Green + Maori 15%
100%50%0%
May 2026Jul 2026Oct 2026
Key questions
When is the vote?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 (in 31 days).
Who is expected to win?
National + ACT + NZF, with a market-implied probability of 44%, ahead of Labour + Green at 29%. Updated 2026-10-07 13:52 UTC.
What do these percentages mean?
The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.