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National + ACT + NZF: Which coalition will form the New Zealand government?

Q: National + ACT + NZF: Which coalition will form the New Zealand government?

Market-implied probability: 44%, as of 2026-10-07 15:09 UTC. Source: public prediction-market data.

44%Probability

1h change: –
24h change: –
1w change: ▼2 pts
Voting day: Sat, Nov 7, 2026 (in 31 days)

National + ACT + NZF 44%

100%50%0%

May 2026Jul 2026Oct 2026

Other outcomes in this event

Outcome	Probability	24h change
Labour + Green	29%	▼1 pt
Labour + Green + Maori	15%	▼3 pts
Other	9%	▲2 pts
Labour + Green + NZF	1%	–
Labour + Maori	1%	0 pts
Labour + Green + Maori + NZF	1%	0 pts
National + Labour	1%	–
National + NZF	1%	–
National + ACT	1%	–
Labour	<1%	–
Labour + NZF	<1%	–
Labour + Maori + NZF	<1%	–

All 18 outcomes

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National + ACT + NZF: Which coalition will form the New Zealand government?

Other outcomes in this event

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