How to read these numbers

A figure of 27% means that, at the last snapshot, prediction-market prices put the chance of the event at 27%. It is a market-implied probability, not a poll and not our forecast.

Figures come from public prediction-market data and are refreshed every few minutes. Probabilities move when news arrives, so the number you read tomorrow may differ.

Questions with too little market activity to give a meaningful probability are not listed. Every other open market is, at any horizon, until it closes. Nothing already past is shown; this site is about what is still to come. The exception is an election once its votes are being counted: it stays for three days after the vote, first with the preliminary result from Wikipedia, then with the winner in place of a probability. Markets whose outcome is a number rather than a who or a whether (seat counts, vote shares, turnout, margins, interest rates) are not listed either. The one exception is a vote share that sits exactly on the legal threshold for entering a parliament, which is listed as the question it really is: will the party get in. Markets on who finishes second, third or fourth are not listed either: the winner event already ranks every contender.

Percentages are rounded; values below 1% and above 99% are shown as such. Changes are in percentage points. This site only publishes figures: it is not a betting or trading service and handles no money.

Newsrooms and blogs can embed these figures in their articles for free, in 25 languages: Election widgets for newsrooms. Contact: hi@electiontracker.eu

Publisher: Eastern Vikings OÜ, Estonia. You are welcome to embed Election Tracker widgets and to quote individual figures, with credit and a link to electiontracker.eu. Copying the data in bulk (scraping, feeds, databases) or reselling it is not permitted. © Eastern Vikings OÜ. Legal notice & privacy