Which parties will be part of the government of New Zealand?
6 outcomes · Voting day: (in 31 days) · Use widget
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Te Pāti Māori | 66% | ▼2 pts |
| National Party | 66% | ▲16 pts |
| ACT New Zealand | 65% | ▼2 pts |
| New Zealand First Party | 62% | ▼4 pts |
| Green Party | 62% | – |
| Labour Party | 59% | ▲14 pts |
Key questions
When is the vote?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 (in 31 days).
Who is expected to win?
Te Pāti Māori, with a market-implied probability of 66%, ahead of National Party at 66%. Updated 2026-10-07 15:35 UTC.
What do these percentages mean?
The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.