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Texas Attorney General Election Winner 2026

2 outcomes · Closes

73% chance to win Mayes Middleton (R)

▼6 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Sep 6Oct 7

27% chance to win Nathan Johnson (D)

▲7 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Sep 5Oct 7

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OutcomeProbability24h change
Mayes Middleton (R)73%▲3 pts
Nathan Johnson (D)27%▼2 pts
  1. Mayes Middleton (R) 73%
  2. Nathan Johnson (D) 27%
100%50%0%

Sep 5Sep 21Oct 7

Key questions

Who is expected to win?

Mayes Middleton (R), with a market-implied probability of 73%, ahead of Nathan Johnson (D) at 27%. Updated 2026-10-07 16:36 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

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