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Senate Majority Leader?

12 outcomes · Closes

48% chance Chuck Schumer

▲1 pt in 7 days

Probability

50%
Mar 2026Oct 2026

27% chance John Thune

Probability

50%
Mar 2026Oct 2026

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OutcomeProbability24h change
Chuck Schumer48%▼1 pt
John Thune27%–
Brian Schatz9%0 pts
Chris Van Hollen5%▼1 pt
Tom Cotton4%0 pts
Patty Murray3%▼1 pt
Cory Booker3%0 pts
Steve Daines2%–
John Barrasso1%▼1 pt
Amy Klobuchar<1%–
Mark Kelly<1%–
Lindsey Graham Resolved0%–
  1. Chuck Schumer 48%
  2. John Thune 27%
  3. Brian Schatz 9%
100%50%0%

Mar 2026Jun 2026Oct 2026

Key questions

Who is expected to win?

Chuck Schumer, with a market-implied probability of 48%, ahead of John Thune at 27%. Updated 2026-10-07 17:41 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

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