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Which party will win the House in 2026?

2 outcomes · Closes

92% chance Democratic Party

▼1 pt in 7 days

Probability

50%
Jul 2025Oct 2026

9% chance Republican Party

Probability

50%
Jul 2025Oct 2026

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OutcomeProbability24h change
Democratic Party92%▼1 pt
Republican Party9%–
  1. Democratic Party 92%
  2. Republican Party 9%
100%50%0%

Jul 2025Feb 2026Oct 2026

Key questions

Who is expected to win?

Democratic Party, with a market-implied probability of 92%, ahead of Republican Party at 9%. Updated 2026-10-07 19:50 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

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