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Arizona Secretary of State Election Winner 2026

2 outcomes · Closes

84% chance to win Democrat

▼2 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Jul 24Oct 7

15% chance to win Republican

▲1 pt in 7 days

Probability

50%
Jul 25Oct 7

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OutcomeProbability24h change
Democrat84%–
Republican15%–
  1. Democrat 84%
  2. Republican 15%
100%50%0%

Jul 24Aug 30Oct 7

Key questions

Who is expected to win?

Democrat, with a market-implied probability of 84%, ahead of Republican at 15%. Updated 2026-10-07 16:42 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

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