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Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

2 outcomes · Closes

65% chance Democratic Party

▲2 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Jul 2025Oct 2026

36% chance Republican Party

▼2 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Jul 2025Oct 2026

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OutcomeProbability24h change
Democratic Party65%–
Republican Party36%–
  1. Democratic Party 65%
  2. Republican Party 36%
100%50%0%

Jul 2025Feb 2026Oct 2026

Key questions

Who is expected to win?

Democratic Party, with a market-implied probability of 65%, ahead of Republican Party at 36%. Updated 2026-10-07 13:52 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

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