US Senate Minority Leader?

9 outcomes · Closes Jan 3, 2027 · Use widget

Outcome	Probability	24h change
John Thune	45%	–
Chuck Schumer	31%	▲2 pts
John Barrasso	11%	▲3 pts
Tom Cotton	9%	▼2 pts
Mark Kelly	6%	▲1 pt
Patty Murray	5%	0 pts
Brian Schatz	4%	▼2 pts
Rick Scott	4%	0 pts
Cory Booker	3%	▼2 pts

Key questions

Who is expected to win?

John Thune, with a market-implied probability of 45%, ahead of Chuck Schumer at 31%. Updated 2026-10-07 18:45 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

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US Senate Minority Leader 2027: John Thune, with a market-implied probability of 45%, ahead of Chuck Schumer at 31%. Source: electiontracker.eu, October 7, 2026