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Nevada Secretary of State Election Winner 2026

2 outcomes · Closes

87% chance to win Cisco Aguilar (D)

▲1 pt in 7 days

Probability

50%
Sep 5Oct 7

12% chance to win Jim Marchant (R)

▲4 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Sep 6Oct 7

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OutcomeProbability24h change
Cisco Aguilar (D)87%–
Jim Marchant (R)12%▲1 pt
  1. Cisco Aguilar (D) 87%
  2. Jim Marchant (R) 12%
100%50%0%

Sep 5Sep 21Oct 7

Key questions

Who is expected to win?

Cisco Aguilar (D), with a market-implied probability of 87%, ahead of Jim Marchant (R) at 12%. Updated 2026-10-07 17:47 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

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