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Toronto Mayoral Election Winner 2026

8 outcomes · Voting day: (in 19 days)

80% chance to win Olivia Chow

▼8 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Apr 2026Oct 2026

21% chance to win Brad Bradford

▲9 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Apr 2026Oct 2026

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OutcomeProbability24h change
Olivia Chow80%▲3 pts
Brad Bradford21%–
Ana Bailão<1%–
Michael Ford<1%–
Anthony Furey<1%–
Marco Mendicino<1%–
John Tory<1%–
Kevin Clarke<1%–
  1. Olivia Chow 80%
  2. Brad Bradford 21%
100%50%0%

Apr 2026Jul 2026Oct 2026

Key questions

When is the vote?

Monday, October 26, 2026 (in 19 days).

Who is expected to win?

Olivia Chow, with a market-implied probability of 80%, ahead of Brad Bradford at 21%. Updated 2026-10-07 15:35 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

Related races

  1. Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner Mark Sutcliffe 86%
  2. Oshawa, ON Mayoral Election Winner Tito-Dante Marimpietri 32%
  3. Markham, ON Mayoral Election Winner Frank Scarpitti 81%
  4. Vaughan, ON Mayoral Election Winner Steven Del Duca 94%
  5. Mississauga Mayoral Election Winner Carolyn Parrish 48%
  6. Niagara-on-the-Lake, ON Mayoral Election Winner Erwin Wiens 56%
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