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Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner 2026

5 outcomes · Voting day: (in 19 days)

86% chance to win Mark Sutcliffe

▲4 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Apr 2026Oct 2026

7% chance to win Alex Lawson

▲3 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Apr 2026Oct 2026

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OutcomeProbability24h change
Mark Sutcliffe86%▲3 pts
Alex Lawson7%▲2 pts
Jeff Leiper4%0 pts
Neil Saravanamuttoo1%–
Catherine McKenney<1%0 pts
  1. Mark Sutcliffe 86%
  2. Alex Lawson 7%
100%50%0%

Apr 2026Jul 2026Oct 2026

Key questions

When is the vote?

Monday, October 26, 2026 (in 19 days).

Who is expected to win?

Mark Sutcliffe, with a market-implied probability of 86%, ahead of Alex Lawson at 7%. Updated 2026-10-07 15:35 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

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  3. Markham, ON Mayoral Election Winner Frank Scarpitti 81%
  4. Vaughan, ON Mayoral Election Winner Steven Del Duca 94%
  5. Mississauga Mayoral Election Winner Carolyn Parrish 48%
  6. Niagara-on-the-Lake, ON Mayoral Election Winner Erwin Wiens 56%
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