Niagara-on-the-Lake, ON Mayoral Election Winner 2026
3 outcomes · Voting day: (in 19 days)
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Erwin Wiens | 56% | ▲1 pt |
| Andrea Kaiser | 38% | ▲10 pts |
| Vaughn Goettler | 7% | ▲1 pt |
- Erwin Wiens 56%
- Andrea Kaiser 38%
- Vaughn Goettler 7%
100%50%0%
Aug 25Sep 15Oct 7
Key questions
When is the vote?
Monday, October 26, 2026 (in 19 days).
Who is expected to win?
Erwin Wiens, with a market-implied probability of 56%, ahead of Andrea Kaiser at 38%. Updated 2026-10-07 14:33 UTC.
What do these percentages mean?
The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.