Ontario Liberal Party Leadership Election Winner 2026
5 outcomes · Closes · Use widget
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Lee Fairclough | 49% | ▲3 pts |
| Navdeep Bains | 37% | ▼5 pts |
| Stephanie Bowman | 9% | ▲1 pt |
| Dylan Marando | 3% | 0 pts |
| Eric Lombardi | <1% | – |
Key questions
Who is expected to win?
Lee Fairclough, with a market-implied probability of 49%, ahead of Navdeep Bains at 37%. Updated 2026-10-07 14:33 UTC.
What do these percentages mean?
The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.