Hamilton Mayoral Election 2026
9 outcomes · Voting day: (in 19 days)
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Keanin Loomis | 56% | ▼1 pt |
| Andrea Horwath | 39% | ▼1 pt |
| Scarlett Gillespie | 6% | 0 pts |
| Sasha Austin | 5% | 0 pts |
| Rob Cooper | <1% | – |
| Ejaz Butt | <1% | – |
| Paul Fromm | <1% | – |
| Pamela Mitchell | <1% | – |
| Nathalie Xian Yi Yan | <1% | – |
- Keanin Loomis 56%
- Andrea Horwath 39%
- Scarlett Gillespie 6%
100%50%0%
Aug 12Sep 9Oct 7
Key questions
When is the vote?
Monday, October 26, 2026 (in 19 days).
Who is expected to win?
Keanin Loomis, with a market-implied probability of 56%, ahead of Andrea Horwath at 39%. Updated 2026-10-07 17:41 UTC.
What do these percentages mean?
The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.