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Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

15 outcomes · Voting day: (in 20 days)

41% chance No Next Minister by Feb 28

▼1 pt in 7 days

Probability

50%
Oct 1Oct 7

13% chance Avigdor Lieberman

▼28 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Oct 2Oct 7

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OutcomeProbability24h change
No Next Minister by Feb 2841%▲8 pts
Avigdor Lieberman13%▼1 pt
Gadi Eizenkot13%–
Yair Lapid12%▲5 pts
Israel Katz9%–
Naftali Bennett8%▼3 pts
Yoram Cohen7%▼8 pts
Yair Golan6%▼4 pts
Benjamin Netanyahu6%▼5 pts
Ron Dermer6%–
Amir Ohana6%▼5 pts
Eli Cohen4%0 pts
Gideon Sa’ar2%▼4 pts
Yossi Cohen2%0 pts
Benny Gantz1%–
  1. No Next Minister by Feb 28 41%
  2. Avigdor Lieberman 13%
  3. Gadi Eizenkot 13%
100%50%0%

Sep 30Oct 4Oct 7

Key questions

When is the vote?

Tuesday, October 27, 2026 (in 20 days).

Who is expected to win?

No Next Minister by Feb 28, with a market-implied probability of 41%, ahead of Avigdor Lieberman at 13%. Updated 2026-10-07 15:35 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

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  2. Israeli Legislative Election Winner Yashar 51%
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  4. Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections? Ra'am 96%
  5. Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut miss the 3.25% threshold for the Knesset? Yes 15%
  6. Will United Arab List (Ra'am) miss the 3.25% threshold for the Knesset? Yes 9%
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