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Cape Verde Presidential Election Winner 2026

7 outcomes · Voting day: (in 39 days)

78% chance to win José Maria Neves

▼2 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Aug 12Oct 7

11% chance to win Joana Rosa

▲3 pts in 7 days

Probability

50%
Aug 12Oct 7

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OutcomeProbability24h change
José Maria Neves78%–
Joana Rosa11%▲1 pt
Casimiro de Pina3%–
Péricles Tavares1%–
Janine Lélis1%0 pts
Fernando Delgado<1%–
Milton Paiva<1%–
  1. José Maria Neves 78%
  2. Joana Rosa 11%
100%50%0%

Aug 12Sep 9Oct 7

Key questions

When is the vote?

Sunday, November 15, 2026 (in 39 days).

Who is expected to win?

José Maria Neves, with a market-implied probability of 78%, ahead of Joana Rosa at 11%. Updated 2026-10-07 15:35 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

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