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Flávio Bolsonaro faces Lula in Brazil election runoff on 25 October

Voting day: (in 18 days) · Updated

Brazil votes on 25 October 2026 in a runoff to elect its president. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who came first in the first round on 4 October with 47.03%, faces President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who won 45.16%.

Brazil Presidential Election

Sunday, October 25, 2026 · in 18 days

All 2 outcomes

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The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes. How to read these numbers

Voting day
25 October 2026
Polls close
First results
Elected
President and vice president; governors in six states and the Federal District
Decided by
Runoff between the top two of the first round; the majority of valid votes wins
Takes office
5 January 2027

Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner

#OutcomeVote share
1Flávio Bolsonaro47.0%
2Lula45.2%
3Escritor Augusto Cury2.9%
4Renan Santos2.2%
5Ronaldo Caiado2.2%

Source: Wikipedia

Who is running

Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is a senator for Rio de Janeiro state and the candidate of the Liberal Party (PL), a right-wing party. He is a son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who endorsed him and is barred from holding office until 2030. He pledges to reduce the deficit and to align Brazil's foreign policy with the United States. His running mate is Alfredo Gaspar, a federal deputy from Alagoas state and a former prosecutor.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, known as Lula, is the president and seeks a fourth term. A former metalworkers' union leader, he is a founder of the Workers' Party (PT), a left-wing party, and was first elected president in 2002. He pledges to continue social spending and to resist the policies of United States President Donald Trump's government towards Latin America. His running mate is Geraldo Alckmin of the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB), a former governor of São Paulo state.

How the vote works

Only the two candidates with the most votes in the first round are on the ballot. The candidate who wins the majority of valid votes is elected. Blank and spoiled ballots are left out of the calculation. A runoff is needed because no candidate won more than half of the valid votes on 4 October.

Polling stations open at 08:00 and close at 17:00 Brasília time (20:00 UTC) across the country. Brazilians registered to vote abroad also take part. Votes are cast on electronic voting machines.

On the same day, six states and the Federal District hold runoffs for governor: Acre, Amazonas, Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Norte and Tocantins. Congress was elected on 4 October: all 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 54 of the 81 seats in the Senate. There is no second vote for these seats.

How the race got here

Lula defeated Jair Bolsonaro in a runoff in 2022. On 11 September 2025 Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years in prison for plotting a coup to overturn that election. He is serving that sentence.

Lula announced in October 2025 that he would seek another term. In December 2025 Flávio Bolsonaro announced his candidacy with his father's endorsement, and the Liberal Party confirmed it.

Twelve candidates stood in the first round on 4 October 2026. Flávio Bolsonaro won 47.03% of the valid votes and Lula 45.16%. Augusto Cury came third with 2.89%, Renan Santos fourth with 2.24% and Ronaldo Caiado fifth with 2.18%. Before that vote, the market-implied probability of finishing first in the round was 72.5% for Lula and 28.5% for Flávio Bolsonaro.

What happens next

Counting begins as soon as polling stations close. The Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Brazil's electoral authority, publishes results from 17:00 Brasília time on 25 October. There is no fixed time for the count to end, as that depends on how fast each municipality sends its data.

The winner takes office as president on 5 January 2027, together with his vice president. A constitutional amendment passed in 2021 moved the date from 1 January, starting with this election. Governors take office on 6 January 2027.

Latest news

  1. Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) formalized his support for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff at an event in Goiânia. Estado de Minas
  2. Band and Record scheduled runoff debates between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro for 11 October; participation is not yet confirmed. Exame
  3. Romeu Zema (Novo) announced his support for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff. Estado de Minas
  4. No candidate won a majority in the first round; Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula advance to a runoff on 25 October, with Augusto Cury third. Rádio Senado

Summarised automatically from the linked sources. Senado Notícias · Wikipedia · Exame · CNN Brasil · Rádio Senado · Agência Brasil · NPR · Al Jazeera