Fall Elections Three-Way 2026: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo
12 outcomes · Closes · Use widget
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems | 38% | – |
| Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Dems | 28% | ▲4 pts |
| Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Reps | 14% | ▲4 pts |
| Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Reps | 9% | ▼5 pts |
| Lula, Netanyahu, Dems | 7% | – |
| Lula, Eizenkot, Reps | 6% | ▲2 pts |
| Lula, Netanyahu, Reps | 6% | ▲2 pts |
| Lula, Eizenkot, Dems | 5% | ▼1 pt |
| Bolsonaro, Bennett, Reps | 4% | ▼1 pt |
| Bolsonaro, Bennett, Dems | 4% | ▼4 pts |
| Lula, Bennett, Dems | 3% | 0 pts |
| Lula, Bennett, Reps | 2% | – |
Key questions
Who is expected to win?
Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems, with a market-implied probability of 38%, ahead of Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Dems at 28%. Updated 2026-10-07 14:33 UTC.
What do these percentages mean?
The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.