Brazil Presidential Election Second Round 2026: 1st Place in Pará
2 outcomes · Voting day: (in 18 days) · Use widget
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Lula | 81% | ▲7 pts |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 18% | ▲1 pt |
Key questions
When is the vote?
Sunday, October 25, 2026 (in 18 days).
Who is expected to win?
Lula, with a market-implied probability of 81%, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 18%. Updated 2026-10-07 14:33 UTC.
What do these percentages mean?
The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.