Brazil Presidential Election Second Round 2026: 1st Place in Amazonas

2 outcomes · Voting day: Sun, Oct 25, 2026 (in 18 days) · Use widget

Outcome	Probability	24h change
Lula	59%	▲2 pts
Flávio Bolsonaro	41%	▼3 pts

Key questions

When is the vote?

Sunday, October 25, 2026 (in 18 days).

Who is expected to win?

Lula, with a market-implied probability of 59%, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 41%. Updated 2026-10-07 17:41 UTC.

What do these percentages mean?

The percentages on electiontracker.eu are market-implied probabilities: how likely each outcome is, as priced by prediction markets. They are not polls and not our forecast, and they are refreshed every few minutes.

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Brazil Presidential Election Second Round 2026: 1st Place in Amazonas – Lula, with a market-implied probability of 59%, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 41%. Source: electiontracker.eu, October 7, 2026